Eid al-Fitr 2025/1446 Hijri has a great chance to be simultaneously celebrated by the government, Nahdlatul Ulama, and Muhammadiyah due to the condition of the hilal or the Moon marking the beginning of the Hijri month meeting the requirements of each faction.

This was revealed in the information on the Crescent Moon Forecast at Sunset on March 29 and 30, which determines the beginning of the month of Syawal 1446 H, released by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).
In determining the beginning of the Hijri month, including Ramadan and Syawal, the government and PBNU follow the MABIMS criteria or the agreement of the Ministers of Religious Affairs of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Meanwhile, Muhammadiyah uses the wujudul hilal criteria.

MABIMS has an initial Hijri benchmark that the crescent moon must have a minimum altitude of 3 degrees, with an elongation or angular distance between the Sun and the Moon of 6.4 degrees.
Meanwhile, Muhammadiyah continues to calculate the new month as long as the height of the hilal is above 0 degrees.
This is what often triggers differences in Islamic holidays. However, based on the predictions from BMKG, that difference is unlikely to occur on Eid al-Fitr 2025.
BMKG calculates the crescent moon forecast determining Syawal based on the conditions at the time of ijtimak or conjunction, which is one full rotation of the Moon around the Earth, namely on March 29 before maghrib.

"To measure the condition of the crescent moon, BMKG uses the earliest sunset time at 17:44 WIT in Oksibil, Papua; and the latest at 18:48 WIB in Sabang, Aceh on March 29."

Then in the region of Indonesia on March 30, 2025, the earliest sunset time is at 5:43 PM WIT in Merauke, Papua; and the latest is at 6:48 PM WIB in Sabang, Aceh.

"Based on BMKG prediction data, the height of the Hilal in Indonesia at sunset on March 29, 2025, ranges from -3.29 degrees in Merauke, Papua to -1.07 degrees in Sabang, Aceh."

Meanwhile, the height of the crescent moon in Indonesia at sunset on March 30, 2025, ranges from 7.96 degrees in Merauke, Papua to 11.48 degrees in Sabang, Aceh.

Meanwhile, the elongation in Indonesia at sunset on March 29, 2025, ranges from 1.06 degrees in Kebumen, Central Java to 1.61 degrees in Oksibil, Papua.

Then, the elongation in Indonesia at sunset on March 30, 2025, ranges from 13.02 degrees in Merauke, Papua to 14.83 degrees in Sabang, Aceh.

"If referring to the MABIMS category, then it is highly likely that 1 Syawal will fall on March 31, because the height of the crescent moon and elongation on March 29 do not meet the requirements."

"Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the Space Research Center of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Thomas Djamaludin, also predicts that 1 Syawal 1446 Hijri will fall on March 31, 2025."
Thomas stated that the position of the Moon in Indonesia is still below the horizon at sunset on March 29.

"At the time of maghrib on March 29, the position of the Moon in Indonesia is below the horizon. This means it does not meet the MABIMS criteria used by the Government and Islamic organizations, and it also does not meet the Wujudul Hilal criteria used by Muhammadiyah," said Thomas to CNNIndonesia.com, Tuesday (3/18).

"The decision for Idulfitri 1446 H: uniform on March 31, 2025," he added.

Nevertheless, Thomas urged to monitor the final results during the implementation of the isbat session on March 29.
Previously, Minister of Religious Affairs Nasarudin Umar also estimated that Eid al-Fitr 1446 Hijri this year will be simultaneous between the government and other Islamic organizations.

According to Nasaruddin, this is because the height of the crescent moon is expected to still not be visible on March 29, 2025, so Idulfitri is also expected to coincide with Muhammadiyah on March 31, 2025.

"Our Eid is predicted to be on March 31, 2025," said Nasaruddin some time ago.
"If the prediction of the Minister of Religion is correct, then this year's Eid has the potential to coincide with the date set by the Islamic Organization PP Muhammadiyah."

The Muhammadiyah Central Board previously determined that Idulfitri 2025 falls on Monday, March 31, 2025. This determination was made based on the authentic results of the wujudul hilal in the Muhammadiyah Central Board's announcement regarding the determination of the Ramadan, Syawal, and Zulhijah 1446 Hijri.

Source: CNN Indonesia