The beginning of 2025 was marked by deflation, reflecting weakening purchasing power. Seasonal money circulation during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 2025 was said to have failed to boost purchasing power. Although the government considered deflation a sign of success in price control, several economists viewed this condition as an indication of weak domestic consumption, impacting various economic sectors. Professor of Management Science at Muhammadiyah University of Surakarta (UMS), Anton Agus Setyawan, highlighted the impact of deflation on the manufacturing sector. According to him, weakened purchasing power contributed to rising unemployment. "In early 2025, nearly 14,000 formal workers lost their jobs due to declining performance in the manufacturing sector. This impacted household income, which ultimately further weakened purchasing power," Anton said. Not only the manufacturing sector, but the trade and services sectors also experienced similar impacts. This situation was exacerbated by global economic uncertainty following the COVID-19 pandemic, which continued to trigger an energy crisis and geopolitical tensions. Anton assessed that government efforts, such as electricity tariff cuts and plans to subsidize toll roads during the Eid holiday, were insufficient to address structural problems in the economy. He suggested that the government expand social assistance programs to maintain people's purchasing power.

The impact of weakening purchasing power is also being felt in the hotel industry. Two hotels in Bogor, West Java, were forced to close due to low occupancy rates, resulting in the loss of 150 employees. Hariyadi Sukamdani, Chairman of the Indonesian Hotel and Restaurant Association (PHRI), stated that if people's purchasing power does not improve soon, layoffs in the hotel industry could continue to rise.

"Yesterday, two hotels in Bogor closed, impacting 150 workers who lost their jobs. If this situation continues, more hotels could close," said Hariyadi. Hariyadi also noted that hotel occupancy rates during Eid al-Fitr 2025 decreased by around 20 percent compared to the previous year. Hotel room reservations tended to be slower and did not continue until the end of the holiday period as in previous years. He hopes the government will immediately implement spending policies that can boost hotel occupancy. This is because the government segment currently contributes up to 40 percent of total hotel room reservations.

A survey by the Ministry of Transportation (Kemenhub) noted that the number of travelers returning home for Eid al-Fitr in 2025 is estimated to reach 146.48 million people, down 24.34 percent compared to the previous year's figure of 193.6 million people.

The Head of the Ministry of Transportation's Communication and Public Information Bureau, Budi Rahardjo, confirmed that there had been a decrease in public movement during this year's homecoming. However, his office did not reveal the main cause of the decline. "It is true, the potential size of public movement during this year's (2025) Eid homecoming has decreased compared to last year," said the Head of the Ministry of Transportation's Communication and Public Information Bureau, Budi Rahardjo, Saturday, March 22, 2025. Meanwhile, data from the Indonesian Transportation Information System and Facilities (Siasati) shows that up to D-3 Eid, the number of passengers from five modes of public transportation reached 6.75 million people, down 4.8 percent from the previous year. The mode of transportation that experienced the sharpest decline was intercity and interprovincial buses (AKAP) by 10.2 percent, followed by airplanes (6.8 percent), and ships (4.8 percent). The Director of Public Policy from the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), Media Wahyudi Askar, assessed that sluggish public purchasing power was the main factor in the decrease in the number of homecoming travelers. The increase in prices of basic necessities and transportation services also weighs on people's decision to return home.

"Another aspect is business uncertainty and wage stagnation. Many people are choosing to cut back on spending, including on their homecoming trips, to maintain their financial stability," said Askar. In addition to economic factors, reduced social assistance also influences people's decisions to return home. In 2025, the social assistance budget decreased by around 16 percent compared to the previous year, from IDR 168 trillion to IDR 140 trillion. Previously, this assistance was widely used by people to meet basic needs and start businesses back home.