Suddenly, the focus of US President Donald Trump's trade war has narrowed. Instead of opening a war front with the rest of the world, Trump is bringing tensions to more familiar territory: the US versus China.

Dozens of countries got a breather after Trump delayed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on Thursday (April 10). However, those countries are still subject to a universal tariff of 10%.

But China—which exports everything from iPhones to children's toys and accounts for 14% of total US imports—is the only country to be hit with a 'crazy' 125% tariff.

Trump said the increase was a signal that Beijing was preparing to retaliate with an 84% tariff on American exports. Trump called this action "disrespectful."

According to the politician who swept to the White House on an anti-China campaign, this is no ordinary retaliation.

For him, this was an unfinished business during his first term in office.

"We haven't had time to do the right thing, and that's what we're doing now," he told reporters.

Trump's goals are no joke. He wants to overturn the global trading system that centers on China as the world's manufacturer and the "more trade, the better" view that has been his guiding principle.

To understand the US president's underlying motives, we need to go back to a time before anyone thought Trump had a chance of being a presidential candidate, let alone winning.

In 2012, when I wrote my first report from Shanghai, China's business capital, almost everyone—global business leaders, Chinese officials, government delegates, business delegates, foreign correspondents, economists—thought increasing trade with China was a no-brainer.

This cooperation will increase global growth, provide a limitless and cheap supply of goods, a supply of labor for factories in the global supply chain, and provide attractive opportunities for multinational companies to sell their products to the new middle class.

Within a few years of my arrival, China had surpassed the US and become the world's largest market for Rolls Royce, General Motors, and Volkswagen products.

Then there is a deeper justification too.

As China becomes richer, the theory goes, the Chinese people will begin to want political reform.

Their shopping habits will also help China's transition into a consumer society.

But that first prediction never came to pass. The ruling Chinese Communist Party held on to its power.

Meanwhile, the second prediction didn't come to fruition quickly. China isn't just relying on exports, but is also openly planning to become increasingly dominant.

In its landmark 2015 policy blueprint, "Made in China 2025," the Chinese government outlined a sweeping, state-led vision to become a global leader in several manufacturing sectors, from aerospace to shipbuilding to electric vehicles.

The following year, an outsider with little political knowledge began his bid for US president.

His campaign rhetoric repeatedly included messages that China's rise had undermined the American economy, set back American heavy industry, and hurt the lives of blue-collar workers.

Trump's trade war in his first term quickly shattered any consensus.

His successor, President Joe Biden, kept most of his tariffs on China in place.

While these actions have caused China some headaches, they have not significantly changed the economic model.

China currently produces 60% of the world's electric cars—mostly local brands—and 80% of the batteries that power them.

And now Trump is back, with tariff hikes.

Arguably, this would be the biggest shock to the established world trading system ever unleashed by a US president.

What happens next depends on two questions.

First, will China accept the offer for negotiations.

Second, assuming China accepts the negotiation offer, is China willing to make the major concessions the US wants, including a complete overhaul of its export-oriented economic model.

The answer, most importantly, is that we are in completely uncharted territory.

So we should be suspicious of anyone who claims to know how Beijing will react.

But there is certainly reason to be wary.

China's vision of economic strength—based on export strength and protection of the domestic market—is now closely linked to the idea of national renaissance and the supremacy of the one-party system.

Its tight control over information is likely to remain a difficult barrier for American tech companies, for example.

But there is another question the US must answer.

Does the US still want free trade? Donald Trump often calls tariffs a good thing, even though they serve no specific purpose.

Trump frequently talks about the benefits of protectionism for the US to stimulate domestic investment, encourage US companies to bring their supply chains back home, and increase income taxes.

And if Beijing believes those are the reasons for imposing tariffs, it may decide there is nothing to negotiate.

Instead of encouraging economic cooperation, the world's two economic superpowers will be trapped in a war situation where the winner gets all the economic benefits.

If so, it would signal the breakdown of the old order, and would create a future that might not only be different, but also dangerous.

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